Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 85657.072651 90377.641559 95094.342143 100157.474059 105435.238954 110771.160162 116570.221570
2024-12-29 78605.492034 85890.999164 93371.069036 101614.444102 110433.411369 119574.668517 129755.551020
2025-01-05 73311.060290 82358.156176 91847.777891 102522.057925 114172.327869 126479.802375 140442.178904
2025-01-12 68664.891924 78975.438064 89987.498846 102588.241992 116571.029167 131574.884990 148854.101314
2025-01-19 64697.844789 75978.401661 88219.770555 102438.411890 118445.050048 135852.814854 156159.947570
2025-01-26 62592.557645 74856.368110 88350.479404 104228.425671 122325.183858 142233.005661 165711.433972
2025-02-02 60771.909613 73903.106263 88535.881612 105957.384388 126036.207646 148353.184277 174930.879949
2025-02-09 58613.067346 72421.386237 87995.041699 106743.888768 128580.203841 153085.380218 182535.090413
2025-02-16 56147.490826 70452.991416 86776.022397 106637.850956 130003.277587 156465.633004 188541.867939
2025-02-23 54267.033013 69081.753015 86169.873604 107169.351223 132102.391965 160578.551347 195368.134004
2025-03-02 52298.957914 67516.226300 85254.010752 107260.975185 133623.201209 163974.823098 201334.478121
2025-03-09 51152.533871 66889.068451 85408.865688 108586.290785 136574.524819 169032.704995 209255.006579
2025-03-16 49127.078751 65139.509609 84180.179806 108232.819129 137528.790156 171767.305269 214500.286220
2025-03-23 48230.951400 64754.776662 84586.731719 109848.288744 140852.670827 177336.655674 223160.316714
2025-03-30 47080.449472 64002.809314 84501.592390 110828.865012 143385.953972 181955.972099 230700.389016
2025-04-06 45561.658276 62728.119226 83718.370865 110902.464442 144775.303959 185176.001393 236550.831026
2025-04-13 44021.967239 61372.576909 82784.955080 110743.625536 145841.324440 187979.451648 241886.785956
2025-04-20 43528.709387 61344.852284 83507.393381 112649.436794 149465.638353 193915.643730 251071.802998
2025-04-27 43038.646905 61297.178442 84186.515951 114489.755013 153008.471862 199766.041858 260185.300024
2025-05-04 42132.441219 60668.996212 84094.483881 115326.788586 155278.523035 204046.091386 267381.003554
2025-05-11 40859.665033 59514.044411 83286.560079 115213.945329 156322.869353 206791.403458 272675.784835
2025-05-18 39935.559238 58796.703030 83021.806627 115779.551906 158215.004859 210589.696780 279290.866201
2025-05-25 38860.088751 57841.987971 82416.751507 115877.051958 159489.140239 213604.269348 284930.162308